XVI, 196 p. 5 illus., 2 illus. in color. online resource
Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations. Michael Clements is Professor of Econometrics at the ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading, UK. He is Series Editor of Palgrave Texts in Econometrics and Palgrave Advanced Texts in Econometrics, and has published extensively on time series econometrics, modelling and forecasting.
Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: The Nature of Survey Expectations -- Chapter 3: Working with Forecast Data -- Chapter 4: Assessing the Point Predictions -- Chapter 5: Assessing the Accuracy of the Probability Distributions -- Chapter 6: Consistency of the Point Forecasts and Probability Distributions -- Chapter 7: Macroeconomic Uncertainty - Surveys versus Models? -- Chapter 8: Behavioural Models of Expectations Formation -- Chapter 9: Expectations Shocks and the Macroeconomy