Does futures speculation affect spot price levels - Evidence from precious metal / Thaksapohn Peerapatpokin
Imprint
2017
Descript
32 leaves: tables
SUMMARY
This paper examines the effect of speculation in the precious metal futures market to precious metal spot price and volatility during 2007 - 2016. The results show statistically positive signification relationship between the increasing of speculators’ long positions and spot price change and statistically negative signification relationship between the increasing of speculators’ short positions and spot price change in gold market.The study implies that increasing of speculators’ long position leads to an increase of gold spot price and increasing of speculators’ short position leads to a decrease of gold spot price.
However, there is no relationship between the increasing silver speculators’ long and short positions to silver spot price. Additionally, the study shows that increasing of speculators’ short positions in gold futures decreases the volatility in gold spot price while there is no relationship in silver market. One possible explanation of the different result between gold and silver is the proportion of speculators’ shares in two markets. While the proportion of speculators’ shares in gold futures market considerably increased, the proportion of speculators’ shares in silver futures market slightly changed.
