Author	Dale, Andrew I. author
Title	A History of Inverse Probability [electronic resource] : From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson / by Andrew I. Dale
Imprint	New York, NY : Springer US, 1991
Connect to	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-0415-9
Descript	online resource

It is thought as necessary to write a Preface before a Book, as it is judged civil, when you invite a Friend to Dinner, to proffer him a Glass of Hock beforehand for a Whet. John Arbuthnot, from the preface to his translation of Huygens's "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Alooe". Prompted by an awareness of the importance of Bayesian ideas in modern statistical theory and practice, I decided some years ago to undertake a study of the development and growth of such ideas. At the time it seemed appropriate to begin such an investigation with an examination of Bayes's Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances and Laplace's Theorie analytique des probabilites, and then to pass swiftly on to a brief consideration of other nineteenth century works before turning to what would be the main topic of the treatise, videlicet the rise of Bayesian statisยญ tics from the 1950's to the present day. It soon became apparent, however, that the amount of Bayesian work published was such that a thorough investigation of the topic up to the 1980's would require several volumes - and also run the risk of incurring the wrath of extant authors whose writings would no doubt be misrepreยญ sented, or at least be so described. It seemed wise, therefore, to restrict the period and the subject under study in some way, and I decided to conยญ centrate my attention on inverse probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson

1 Thomas Bayes: a biographical sketch -- 1.1 Appendix 1.1 -- 1.2 Appendix 1.2 -- 1.3 Appendix 1.3 -- 1.4 Appendix 1.4 -- 2 Bayesโs Essay -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Priceโs introduction -- 2.3 The first section -- 2.4 The second section -- 2.5 The Appendix -- 2.6 Summary -- 3 Commentary on Bayesโs Essay -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Priceโs introduction -- 3.3 The first section -- 3.4 The second section -- 3.5 The postulate and the scholium -- 3.6 The Appendix -- 3.7 Appendix 3.1 -- 4 Miscellaneous Investigations from 1761 to 1822 -- 4.1 Moses Mendelssohn (1729โ1786) -- 4.2 Bayes and Price -- 4.3 John Michell (1724โ1793) -- 4.4 Nicolas de Beguelin (1714โ1789) -- 4.5 Joseph Louis de la Grange (1736โ1813) -- 4.6 William Emerson (1701โ1782) -- 4.7 George Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon (1707โ1788) -- 4.8 Jean Trembley (1749โ1811) -- 4.9 Pierre Prevost (1751โ1839) & Simon Antoine Jean Lhuilier (1750โ1840) -- 4.10 Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777โ1855) -- 4.11 William Morgan (1750โ1833) -- 4.12 Sylvestre Franรois Lacroix (1765โ1843) -- 4.13 Conclusions and Summary -- 4.14 Appendix 4.1 -- 5 Condorcet -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Unpublished manuscripts -- 5.3 The Memoir -- 5.4 Probabilitรฉ, from the Encyclopรฉdie Mรฉthodique -- 5.5 The Essay -- 5.6 Discours sur lโastronomie et le calcul des probabilitรฉs -- 5.7 Elรฉmรฉns du calcul des probabilitรฉs -- 5.8 Appendix 5.1 -- 6 Laplace -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Sur les suites rรฉcurro-rรฉcurrentes -- 6.3 Sur la probabilitรฉ des causes -- 6.4 Sur lโintรฉgration des รฉquations diffรฉrentielles -- 6.5 Sur les probabilitรฉs -- 6.6 Sur les approximations des formules (suite) -- 6.7 Sur les naissances -- 6.8 Sur les probabilitรฉs -- 6.9 Sur les approximations des formules -- 6.10 Supplรฉment: sur les approximations des formules -- 6.11 Sur les intรฉgrales dรฉfinies -- 6.12 Sur les comรจtes -- 6.13 Two memoirs -- 6.14 Thรฉorie analytique des probabilitรฉs -- 6.15 Appendix 6.1 -- 6.16 Appendix 6.2 -- 6.17 Appendix 6.3 -- 7 Poisson to Venn -- 7.1 Simรฉon-Denis Poisson (1781โ1840) -- 7.2 John William Lubbock (1803โ1865) & John Elliot Drinkwater-Bethune (1801โ1851) -- 7.3 Bernard Bolzano (1781โ1848) -- 7.4 Augustus de Morgan (1806โ1871) -- 7.5 Irenรฉe Jules Bienaymรฉ (1796โ1878) -- 7.6 Mikhail Vasilโevich Ostrogradski? (1801โ1861) -- 7.7 Thomas Galloway (1796โ1851) -- 7.8 Eugรจne Charles Catalan (1814โ1894) -- 7.9 Jacob Friedrich Friess (1773โ1843) -- 7.10 Antoine Augustin Cournot (1801โ1877) -- 7.11 John Stuart Mill (1806โ1873) -- 7.12 Mathurin-Claude-Charles Gouraud (1823 โ ?) -- 7.13 Robert Leslie Ellis (1817โ1859) -- 7.14 William Fishburn Donkin (1814โ1869) -- 7.15 George Boole (1815โ1864) -- 7.16 Charles Hughes Terrot (1790โ1872) -- 7.17 Anton Meyer (1802โ1857) -- 7.18 Albert Wild -- 7.19 John Venn (1834โ1923) -- 8 Laurent to Pearson -- 8.1 Mathieu Paul Hermann Laurent (1841โ1908) -- 8.2 Cecil James Monro (1833โ1882) -- 8.3 William Stanley Jevons (1835โ1882) -- 8.4 Rudolf Hermann Lotze (1817โ1881) -- 8.5 Bingโs paradox -- 8.6 A question of antisepticism -- 8.7 Francis Ysidro Edgeworth (1845โ1926) -- 8.8 Morgan William Crofton (1826โ1915) -- 8.9 Johannes von Kries (1853โ1928) -- 8.10 George Francis Hardy (1855โ1914) -- 8.11 Joseph Louis Franรois Bertrand (1822โ1900) -- 8.12 George Chrystal (1851โ1911) -- 8.13 William Matthew Makeham (1826โ1891) -- 8.14 Karl Pearson (1857โ1936) -- 8.15 Miscellaneous -- 8.16 Appendix 8.1 -- 8.17 Appendix 8.2 -- Notes -- Epiphonema

1. Statistics
2. Probabilities
3. Statistics
4. Statistics
5. general
6. Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes