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AuthorMosteller, Frederick. author
TitleApplied Bayesian and Classical Inference [electronic resource] : The Case of The Federalist Papers / by Frederick Mosteller, David L. Wallace
ImprintNew York, NY : Springer New York, 1984
Edition 2nd Edition of Inference and Disputed Authorship: The Federalist
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Descript 303p. online resource


The new version has two additions. First, at the suggestion of Stephen Stigler I we have replaced the Table of Contents by what he calls an Analytic Table of Contents. Following the title of each section or subsection is a description of the content of the section. This material helps the reader in several ways, for example: by giving a synopsis of the book, by explaining where the various data tables are and what they deal with, by telling what theory is described where. We did several distinct full studies for the Federalist papers as well as many minor side studies. Some or all may offer information both to the applied and the theoretical reader. We therefore try to give in this Contents more than the few cryptic words in a section heading to ̃peed readers in finding what they want. Seconq, we have prepared an extra chapter dealing with authorship work published from. about 1969 to 1983. Although a chapter cannot compreยญ hensively Gover a field where many books now appear, it can mention most ofthe book-length works and the main thread of authorship' studies published in English. We founq biblical authorship studies so extensive and comยญ plicated that we thought it worthwhile to indicate some papers that would bring out the controversies that are taking place. We hope we have given the flavor of developments over the 15 years mentioned. We have also corrected a few typographical errors


Analytic Table of Contents -- 1. The Federalist Papers As a Case Study -- 1.1. Purpose -- 1.2. The Federalist papers -- 1.3. Early work -- 1.4. Recent workโ{128}{148}pilot study -- 1.5. Plots and honesty -- 1.6. The plan of the book -- 2. Words and Their Distributions -- 2.1. Why words? -- 2.2. Variation with time -- 2.3. How frequency of use varies -- 2.4. Correlations between rates for different words -- 2.5. Pools of words -- 2.6. Word counts and their accuracies -- 2.7. Concluding remarks -- 3. The Main Study -- In the main study, we use Bayesโ{128}{153} theorem to determine odds of authorship for each disputed paper by weighting the evidence from words. Bayesian methods enter centrally in estimating the word rates and choosing the words to use as discriminators. We use not one but an empirically based range of prior distributions. We present the results for the disputed papers and examine the sensitivity of the results to various aspects of the analysis. -- 3.1. Introduction to Bayesโ{128}{153} theorem and its applications -- 3.2. Handling unknown parameters of data distributions -- 3.3. Selection of words -- 3.4. Log odds -- 3.5 Log odds by words and word groups -- 3.6. Late Hamilton papers -- 3.7. Adjustments to the log odds -- 4. Theoretical Basis of the Main Study -- This chapter is a sequence of technical sections supporting the methods and results of the main study presented in Chapter 3. We set out the distributional assumptions, our methods of determining final odds of authorship, and the logical basis of the inference. We explain our methods for choosing prior distributions. We develop theory and approximate methods to explore the adequacy of the assumptions and to support the methods and the findings. -- 4.1. The negative binomial distribution -- 4.2. Analysis of the papers of known authorship -- 4.3. Abstract structure of the main study -- 4.4 Odds factors for the negative binomial model -- 4.5. Choosing the prior distributions -- 4.6. Magnitudes of adjustments required by the modal approximation to the odds factor -- 4.7. Correlations -- 4.8. Studies of regression effects -- 4.10. Techniques in the final choice of words -- 5. Weight-Rate Analysis -- 5.1. The study, its strengths and weaknesses -- 5.2. Materials and techniques -- 5.3 Results for the screening and calibrating sets -- 5.4. Regression effects -- 5.5. Results for the disputed papers -- 6. A Robust Hand-Calculated Bayesian Analysis -- 6.1. Why a robust study? -- 6.2. Papers and words -- 6.3. Log odds for high-frequency words -- 6.4 Low-frequency words -- 6.5 The procedure for low-frequency words -- 6.6 Bayesian discussion for low-frequency words -- 6.7 Log odds for 2000-word set and validating set -- 6.8. Disputed papers -- 7. Three-Category Analysis -- 7.1. The general plan -- 7.2 Details of method -- 7.3 Groups of words -- 7.4 Results for the screening and calibrating sets -- 7.5. Regression effects -- 7.6. Results for the joint and disputed papers -- 8. Other Studies -- 8.1 How word rates vary from one text to another -- 8.2 Making simplified studies of authorship -- 8.3 The Caesar letters -- 8.4 Further analysis of Paper No. 20 -- 8.5 How words are used -- 8.6 Scattered investigations -- 8.7. Distributions of word-length -- 9. Summary of Results and Conclusions -- 9.1 Results on the authorship of the disputed Federalist papers -- 9.2 Authorship problems -- 9.3 Discrimination problems -- 9.4 Remarks on Bayesian studies -- 9.5 Summing up -- 10 The State of Statistical Authorship Studies in 1984 -- 10.1 Scope -- 10.2 Computers, concordances, texts, and monographs -- 10.3 General empirical work -- 10.4 Poetry versus prose -- 10.5 Authorship studies similar to the Junius or Federalist studies -- 10.6 Homogeneity problems -- 10.7Anonymous translation -- 10.8 Forensic disputes -- 10.9 Concluding remarks -- References

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