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AuthorAven, Terje. author
TitleReliability and Risk Analysis [electronic resource] / by Terje Aven
ImprintDordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1992
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Descript XII, 346 p. online resource


Analysis of reliability and risk is an important and integral part of planning, construction and operation of all technical systems. To be able to perform such analyses systematically and scientifically, there is usually a need for special methods and models. This book presents the most important of these. Particular emphasis has been placed on the ideas and the motivation for the use of the various methods and models. It has been an objective to compile a book which provides practising engineers and engineering graduates with the concepts and basic techniques for evaluating reliability and risk. It is hoped that the material presented will make them so familiar with the subject that they can carry out various types of analyses themselves and understand and make use of the more detailed applications and additional material which is available in the journals and publications associated with their own discipline. It has also been an objective to put reliability and risk analyses in context - how such analyses should be used in design and operation of components and systems. The material presented is modern and a large part of the book is at research level. The book focuses on analysis of repairable systems, not only non-repairable systems which have traditionally been given most attention in textbooks on reliability theory. Since most real-life systems are repairable, methods for analysing repairable systems are an important area of research. The book presents general methods, with most applications taken from offshore petroยญ leum activities


1 Introduction to Reliability and Risk Analysis -- 1.1 Historical perspective -- 1.2 Objectives of reliability and risk analyses -- 1.3 Subject areas. Modelling -- 1.4 Basic concepts -- 1.5 Planning, execution and use of reliability analysis -- 1.6 Planning, execution and use of risk analysis -- 1.7 Discussion -- 1.8 Problems -- 2 Basic Reliability and Risk Analysis Methods -- 2.1 Use of statistics -- 2.2 Failure mode and effect analysis -- 2.3 Fault tree analysis -- 2.4 Cause consequence analysis/Event tree analysis -- 2.5 Other reliability and risk analysis methods -- 2.6 Problems -- 3 Binary Models for Analysing System Reliability -- 3.1 Structural properties -- 3.2 Computing system reliability -- 3.3 Non-repairable systems -- 3.4 Repairable systems -- 3.5 Reliability importance measures -- 3.6 Dependent components -- 3.7 Problems -- 4 Multistate Models for Analysing System Reliability -- 4.1 Multistate monotone systems -- 4.2 Computing system reliability -- 4.3 A time dependent model -- 4.4 Discussion -- 4.5 Problems -- 5 Optimal Replacement Policies -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 General minimal repair, age replacement model -- 5.3 Block replacement model -- 5.4 On-condition replacement models -- 5.5 Problems -- 6 Safety Management -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Safety management in a company -- 6.3 Reliability management of a product -- 6.4 Problems -- 7 Some Applications -- 7.1 Risk analysis of an offshore oil and gas producing platform -- 7.2 Availability and life cycle costing in a gas project -- 7.3 Availability and life cycle costing related to a process instrumentation system -- 7.4 Discussion -- 7.5 Problems -- Appendicies -- A Probability Theory -- A.l Probabilities -- A.1.1 Probability concepts -- A.1.2 Rules for combining probabilities -- A.1.3 Conditional probabilities -- A.1.4 Independence -- A.2 Stochastic variables -- A.3 Some proofs -- A.3.1 Proof of formula (A.4) -- A.3.2 Probability calculations in event trees -- A.3.3 Proof of an error bound for the approximations (4.2) and (4.3). -- A.4 Problems -- B Stochastic Failure Models -- B.1 Non-repairable units -- B.1.1 Basic concepts -- B.1.2 Some common lifetime distributions -- B.2 Repairable units -- B.3 Binomial distribution -- B.4 Gamma function -- B.5 Problems -- C Statistical Analysis of Reliability Data -- C.1 Identification of lifetime distribution, Hazard plotting -- C.2 Estimation of parameters in lifetime distributions -- C.3 Statistical analysis of non-homogeneous Poisson processes -- C.4 Data sources -- C.5 Problems -- D Markov Models -- D.1 Introduction -- D.2 One component. No repair -- D.3 One repairable component -- D.4 Two repairable components -- D.5 Birth and death processes -- D.6 General formulation of a Markov process -- D.7 Problems -- E More on Stochastic Processes -- E.1 Renewal processes -- E.2 Renewal reward processes -- E.3 Regenerative processes -- E.4 Counting processes -- E.5 Proofs of some results in Chapters 3 and 5 -- E.5.1 Section 3.4.1 -- E.5.2 Section 3.4.2 -- E.5.3 Section 5.4 -- F An Algorithm for Calculating System Reliability -- G A Minimization Technique

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