Title | Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs [electronic resource] : Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1-4 September, 1975 / edited by Helmut Jungermann, Gerard De Zeeuw |
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Imprint | Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1977 |
Connect to | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1276-8 |
Descript | XVI, 528 p. online resource |
I: Approaches to Real-Life Situations: Problems of Improvement -- Editorsโ Introduction -- Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking -- Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking/Comments -- The Use of Credible Intervals in Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results -- Decisions Concerning Job Choice -- The Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Models to some Uncertain Decision Situations in Areas of Business and Public Policy -- Influence of Attribute Formulation on the Evaluation of Apartments by Multi-Attribute Utility Procedures -- Modelling Preferences among Distributions Using Fuzzy Relations -- Subjective Probability Elicitation: A Comparison of Performance Variables -- Rewarding Expertise in Probability Assessment -- The Psychology of the Ouija Board -- II: Analysis and Improvement of Models and Methods -- Editorsโ Introduction -- Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory 165 -- Applications of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory/Comments -- โMotivationalโ Components of Utility -- Methods for Aggregating Opinions -- Methods for Aggregating Opinions/Comments -- The Continuous Ranked Probability Score in Practice -- Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art -- Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art/Comments -- Consistency of Future Event Assessments -- A Study of Intransitive Preferences Using a Think Aloud Procedure -- III: Perspectives for Further Inquiry in Decision Theory -- Editorsโ Introduction -- Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs -- Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs/Comments -- Decision Making and Cognition -- Decision Making and Cognition/Comments -- Cognitive Functions in Decision Making -- Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition -- Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition/Comments -- Decision Making and Numerical Structuring -- Bayesian Statistics and Efficient Information Processing Constrained by Probability Models -- Praxiology and Decision Theory -- Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities -- Index of Names