วัฏจักรธุรกิจระหว่างประเทศและการส่งผ่านผลกระทบ กรณีศึกษากลุ่มประเทศเอเชียตะวันออกเฉียงใต้ / วันชนะ ธนูรัตน์ = International business cycle and its transmission in the Southeast Asian economies / Wanchana tanurat
International economic activities have been important driving factors to most of ASEAN countries in recent years. Trade openness index reveals that the region has been increasing its exposure to international trade over time. Partly, this incidence has been motivated by an export-led growth policy as well as an ongoing regional integration scheme. Rising common activities has direct effect to the pattern of international business cycle within the region, through both vertical and horizontal production network. This study aims to analyze the business cycle within ASEAN countries and between ASEAN and other regions. The study calculated static and dynamics of business cycle correlations in macroeconomic variables, especially output correlation within ASEAN countries and other regions. By using the data filtered by HP-filter method, the study explored the nature of business cycle and the level of economic integration. The relationship between trade intensity and co-movement of business cycle was examined by OLS method. The study also employed a multi-stage production model based on Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory to represent the manufacturing and production sharing structure. Model simulation results portray an explanation of the international business cycle co-movement between countries and regions. The data show highly co-movement of business cycle within ASEAN countries. Economic correlations of ASEAN countries and other regions have changed variably over time. However, the results show positive correlation between trade intensity and co-movement of business cycle with China. The model results also suggest positive co-movement of output correlation between two countries depended on overall bilateral trade quantity and the ratio of vertical integration goods in bilateral trade by a set of exogenous variables. These show the role of international trade and production sharing in the transmission mechanism of international business cycle.
