ผลกระทบของอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนที่แท้จริงต่อการจ้างงานในภาคอุตสาหกรรมของประเทศไทย / ศิริญญา ธีระอนันต์ชัย = The effect of real exchange rate on employment of manufacturing industries in Thailand / Sirinya Teeraananchai
The paper aims to assess the effects of real exchange rate on employment in the manufacturing industry sector in Thailand. The assessment is also carried out on each type of industry, namely labor – intensive industry, technology – based industry and industry that relies on domestic raw materials. The Panel Co – integration approach and Co- integration approach and Co-integration approach are introduced in analyzing the implications on the manufacturing industry as a whole and each type of industry, respectively. In this study, monthly time – series data, from 2000 to 2008, and the concept of the relationship between employment and real exchange rate at market equilibrium labor are employed. The empirical results indicate statistically – significant, long -run relationship between real exchange rate and employment in the manufacturing industry sector. A key assumption in this analysis is that the autoregressive coefficients are similar in all types of industry. However, the findings hold through even though it is assumed that such coefficients differ by types of industry. Beside on each industry has same co – integration. The impact of real exchange rate on the employment in the overall manufacturing industry is -0.35, and by types of industry, the labor – intensive industry has the highest value of response employment at -0.53, while the resource – based industry and the technology industry are -0.24 and -0.11 respective. Furthermore, the value of response is the highest at -0.84 for ISIC 19 Products of Leather and footwear industry which is the labor intensive industry. And the lowest value of response is -0.08 for ISIC 27 Basic metal products, the technology industry. This suggests that the employment in the labor intensive industry responses more to change in real exchange rate than the technology industry. Drawn on this study’s findings, it is recommended that policymakers should take into account the potential implications of the real exchange rate on employment in the manufacturing industry sector, when they make decisions concerning the Thai currency policies. This is to provide protection to workforces in labor – intensive industry such as textile, leather products & footwear, wood & wood products, and food & beverage.
