การได้ประโยชน์จากการปันผลทางประชากร : การศึกษาเชิงประจักษ์ระหว่างประเทศ / ศุภเจตน์ จันทร์สาส์น = The Capitalization on the demographic dividend : a cross-country empirical study / Supachet Chansarn
To investigate the factors affecting the capitalization on the demographic dividend by analyzing the data of 131 countries, grouped into 8 regions, during 1970-2005 to find the way to have the permanent growth of GDP per capita and standard of living of its people. Our finding reveals that the growth rate of GDP per capita is positively related to the growth rate of the proportion of working age population, the growth rate of mean years of schooling, the technological progress as measured by the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation and the trade openness as measured by export and import as percentage of GDP. Thus, Thailand’s opportunity to capitalize on the first demographic dividend still exists despite the reduction in the proportion of working age population. According to the projection, Thailand will be able to have the growth of GDP per capita and the higher standard of living if the favorable policies are properly carried out to increase the other factors so that they can offset the decrease in the proportion of working age population. After considering the opportunity to capitalize on the second demographic dividend, we find that Thailand may not have so high second demographic dividend due to the low wealth accumulation, causing the low intergenerational transfers to finance the consumption of old age population. Furthermore, it is not likely that the second demographic dividend of Thailand will sustainably last because the large portion of wealth accumulation of working age population is transferred to old age population in the form of private transfer or familial support. This familial support is not sustainable under the low fertility and mortality since old age population grows faster than working age population. The finding suggests that a compulsory funded national pension system is required for the sustained second demographic dividend.
