ผลกระทบของการลงทุนภาครัฐต่อการลงทุนภาคเอกชน และการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจของประเทศไทย / ภาวินี วิโนทัย = The effect of public investment on private investment and economic growth in Thailand / Pawinee Winothai
The objective of this thesis is to study about the short-run and long-run effects of public investment on private investment and economic growth in Thailand. Public Investment is categorized into gross public investment in Thailand, public investment in infrastructure, public investment in road, electricity and water supply. This thesis use a Vector Autoregressive approach (VAR) with Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Data is time series data from 1980 to 2003 (i.e.24 years). The variables in oour model are public investment (GGI*), private investment (GPI), economic growth (GDP) and dummy (represent crisis in Thailand). The empirical results indicate that the long-run effect of gross public investment and public investment in infrastructure are positive on economic growth and private investment. When we analyze public investment in road, electricity and water supply, we find that the long-run effects of public investment in road and electricity are positive on economic growth and private investment. Unlike the former, public investment in water supply is negative on private investment. In the short-run, gross public investment, public investment in road and water supply have no effect on economic growth and private investment, but public investment in infrastructure and electricity lagged 2 periods has positive effect on private investment. In addition, the Granger causality test indicates that economic growth and private investment cause public investment, however, only gross public investment and economic growth have a reverse causality. Public investment in road and private investment also have a reverse causality.