การเปรียบเทียบวิธีการพยากรณ์อัตราการว่างงานในภาคอุตสาหกรรม / พนิดา ลิ้มประเสริฐยิ่ง = A comparison of prediction methods for unemployment rate in industrial sector / Panida Limprasirtying
The objective of this research is compare five statistical methods in order to forecast unemployment rate in industrial sector. The statistical under study are Regression Analysis. Exponential Smoothing, Autoregressive, Classical Time Series , and Autoregressive Model with AR error. The result of unemployment rate classified by regions. Metropolitan Area, Bangkok, and the whole country. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used as the criterior for choosing the said five forecasting techniques. This research used secondary data, com plied by The National Statistic Office, The National Economic and Social Development Board, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare, The Customs Department , Ministry of Finance and Bank of Thailand The comparison of forecast errors from the five techniques by using MAPE show ed that The Classical Time Series Model is suitable for unemployment rate in industrial sector of Thailand, and Bangkok. The Regression Model is suitable for unemployment rate in industrial sector of Middle region. Northern region, Northeastern region, and metropolitan. The Regression Model with AR error is suitable for unemployment rate in industrial sector of Southern part. Then, the said models are u sed to forecast unemployment rates in industrial sector of Thailand for the period of three years, 2001-2003, and unemployment rate in industrial sector of part, vicinity, and Bangkok province for the period of four years, 2001 -2003. The results of forecasting are as follows; Unemployment rate in industrial sector of Thailand : In the year 2001, unemployment rate in industrial sector of Thailand will be about 3.6% and trend to decrease that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 3.5 % in the year 2002 and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of Middle region : In 2001-2003 , unemployment rate in industrial sector of Middle region trend to increase that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 2.17% 2.32% and 2.47% in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of Northern region : In 2001-2003 , unemployment rate in industrial sector of Northern region trend to increase that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 2.44% 2.59% and 2.73% in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of North-Eastern region : In 2001-2003 , unemployment rate in industrial sector of North-Eastern region trend to increase that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 4.75% 5.13% and 5.49% in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of Southern region : In 2001-2003 , unemployment rate in industrial sector of Southern region trend to increase that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 2.06% 2.19% and 2.34% in 2001, 2002, and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of metropolitan : In 2001, unemployment rate in industrial sector of metropolitan will be about 2-84% and trend to increase that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 3.16% and 3.47% in 2002, and 2003, respectively. Unemployment rate in industrial sector of Bangkok : In 2001-2003 , unemployment rate in industrial sector of Bangkok trend to decrease that unemployment rate in industrial sector will be about 3.61% 3.45% and 3.29%, respectively. According to above results, the involve department of government should ensure that the appropriate measure for the next year unemployment rate in industrial sector situation, and policy responded to protecting unemployment problem, are seriously considered in order to avoid people difficulties.
