การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบจากการเปลี่ยนแปลงองค์ประกอบของการใช้จ่ายภาครัฐที่มีต่อเศรษฐกิจไทย / ดนุพล อริยสัจจากร = Impacts of changing in the composition of government expenditures on the Thai economy / Danupon Ariyasajjakorn
The objective of this study is to find the impact of changing in the composition of government expenditure on the Thai economy. The static computable general equilibrium CAMGEM (Chulalongkorn and Monash General Equilibrium Model) has to be adjusted for the new classification of government expenditure. The new input-output database was constructed using the matching technique between the general government expenditure items and the NESDB classified production sectors. The change in the government expenditure will lead to a change in government final demand as a result of unequal weight in the share of government expenditure classifying by function and by economic in each production sectors. If the final demand is changed, the supply of the production would have been changed and the linkage between the production sectors caused the aggravated impact on the macro economy. The new adjusted CGE model has been used to analyze the impacts of changing in the composition of government expenditures. The eighteen cases were chosen based on the government policy of the year 2001; such as agriculture debt moratorium policy, establishment of village and urban revolving fund policy, providing public health insurance policy and reforming the salary and payment of government officer policy. The simulated result has shown that the impact of changing in the current government expenditure to the macro economy is higher than the capital government expenditure. Any policy of injecting the expenditure to the economy would lead to the expansion of the GDP. If the policy is to transfer the budget within the functional expenditure, the impact to the economy will depend on the share of that expenditure in the production sectors. The more differentiated share will give to a higher impact on the economy.
