ปริมาณเงินแบบถ่วงน้ำหนักที่เหมาะสมที่สุดในการเป็นเป้าหมายขั้นกลางทางการเงินในประเทศไทย / สินีนาฏ เสริมชีพ = An optimal choice of weighted money supply as intermediate target in Thailand / Sineenat Sermcheep
This thesis aims to examine that which of the weighted money supplies is suitable to be an intermediate target in Thailand. The thesis measures the causality between monetary base and money index, and between money index and ultimate targets. The suitable money index should be able to affect the ultimate targets. As a result, monetary authority can use the monetary base to control that money index. There are several choices of money index that include simple-sum of M1 (SM1), simple-sum of M2 (SM2), Fisher ideal of M2 (FM2) and Divisia of M2 (DM2). This study employs cointegration and Granger causality test by using quarterly data from 1988 to 1999. The results show that the demand for money of SM1, SM2, FM2 and DM2 are stable in the long-run at the 5% significant level. Moreover, SM1, FM2 and DM2 can predict the ultimate targets (real GDP and price level). Monetary authority can use the monetary base to control SM2 because the monetary base does "Granger cause" SM2 and there is no feedback effect. The conclusion is that four of money indices are not suitable for playing a role as an intermediate target. However, the Bank of Thailand can use SM1, FM2 and DM2 as macroeconomic information variables in order to predict macroeconomic activities. Furthermore, the monetary authority can also employ FM2 and DM2 as the early warning indicators.
