ผลกระทบของการนำเข้าสินค้าทุนและสินค้าขั้นกลาง ต่อบัญชีเดินสะพัดและผลผลิตของไทย / อำนาจ อุดมสมุทรหิรัญ = The impact of capital and intermediate goods imports on current account balance and output of Thailand / Amnaj Udomsamuthirun
Capital and intermediate goods are major components of Thailand’s imports. They are used as inputs of production both for domestic consumption and exports. The production economy, therefore, relies heavily on imports. In case that capital and intermediate goods cannot be regularly imported, domestic production might be retarded, and thereby having a negative effect on the current account balance. This study aims at studying the impact of the fluctuation of exogenous imports of capital and intermediate products on current account balance and output of Thailand. A small macroeconometric model was constructed to simulate various situations in which the fluctuation occurs. There are 6 cases involved : (1) an increase in exchange rates, 2) an increase in net inflows of foreign direct investment, (3) an increase in prices of capital goods, (4) an increase in prices of intermediate goods, (5) a decrease in exogenous capital goods import volume, and 6) a decrease in exogenous intermediate goods import volume. The study found that decreasing imports of the capital and intermediate goods would deter exports and production. If exchange rates or prices of the capital or intermediate products increased, the current account balance would be worsen. On the contrary, increasing imports of the capital and intermediate goods would help raise exports and production. However, the current account balance is still worsen due to higher imports. One of the research implications suggests that industrialization process in the country should begin with production of downstream industries by preventing capital and intermediate goods from being highly protected. In the long term, however, upstream production should be gradually promoted to enhance backward linkages. This would help the country to be more self-sufficient in meeting demand for capital and intermediate goods and less exposed to risk from exogenous shocks in the longer term without jeopardizing industrialization process.
