Quantitative risk analysis, uncertainty and variability -- Probability theory and statistics -- How Monte Carlo simulation works -- Stochastic processes -- Probability distributions -- Quantifying uncertainty about model parameters -- Building a risk analysis model -- Determining distributions of variability from data -- Defining distributions from expert opinion -- Modelling dependencies -- Time series projections -- Project risk analysis -- Animal import and food safety risk assessment -- Presenting and interpreting risk analysis results

1. Monte Carlo method
2. Risk assessment -- Mathematical models