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THE IMPORTANcE OF GENERAL STATISTICAL IDEAS 347
phenomena in England and Germany and in other con-
tinental countries are accordingly not singular. The
older countries, and the older parts even of a new country
like the United States, are becoming more and more
the centres where populations live and grow, because
they are the most convenient places for the general
exchange of services with each other among the com-
ponent parts of a large eopulation, which constitutes
production and consumption. A small expenditure of
effort in proportion enables such communities to obtain
from a dIstance the food and raw materials which they
require. Migration is no longer the necessity that it was.
Decline in Rate 0/ Growtk of Population.
I come now to another idea appearing on the surface
of the census returns when they are compared for a
long time past, and the connected returns of births,
marria~es, and deaths, which have now been kept in
most CIvilized communities for generations. Great as
the increase of population is with which we have been
dealing, there are indications that the rate of growth in
the most recent census periods is less in many quarters
than it formerly was, while there has been a correspond-
ing decline in the birth-rates; and to some extent,
. though not to the same extent, in the rate of the ex-
cess of births over deaths, which is the critical rate of
course in a question of the increase of population.
These facts have suggested to some a question as to
how far the increase of population which has been so
marked in the past century is likely to continue, and
speculations have been indulged in as to whether there
is a real decline in the fecundity of population among
the peoples in question resembling· the decline in
France, both in its nature and consequences •. I do not
propose to discuss all these various questions, but rather
to indicate the way in which the problem is suggested
by the statistics. and the importance of-the questions
thus raised for discussion, as a proof of the value of the
continuous statistical records themselves.