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PROTECTION FOR MANUFACTURES IN NEW COUNTRIES 161
means of Protective import duties. This involves the
direct issue between Free Trade and Protection, and
I do not mean to go into that at present. We are dis-
cussing the new countries question at present only.
But, apart from all theory, we may observe that the
intermediate countries between purely new countries
and the old ones are at best in a transition stage; that
a growth of manufacturin~ in such countries is inevit-
able; and that the conditions are also such as to make
them so like those of complete Free Trade that the
transition to complete Free Trade itself becomes no
more than a step. I pointed this out in a recent ad-
, dress in North Staffordshire in another connection,l
but it is useful to recollect it in the present connection
also.
The general case as between Free Trade and Pro-
tectionist policy, reviewing the different groups of
countries, stands thus. In new countries you cannot
promote new manufactures, for reasons in the nature of
things, by means of protective duties; ,in old manu-
facturingcountries you cannot, because such countries,
if they are to make way at all, must manufacture for
export; in intermediate countries between old and new,
matters are in a transition stage, and they are fast
approaching the conditions of the older countries.
Protectionist policy is thus opposed by the force of
circumstances, and another generation or two will prob-
ably see the last Protectionist politician, not only in
England, but throughout the world. The breed, I am
confident, is very nearly extinct, because the modern
atmosphere and conditions, not theory, are making the
policy next to impossible.
1 Seejos/ea, p. 178.

II.