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PROTECTION FOR MANUFACTURES IN NEW COUNTRIES 159
case are the manufactures of a description other than
those natural1y suitable to a new country, which are
independent of a Protective tariff. I do not consider
exceptions the cases where the colonies in question
happen to manufacture for export, this being also a
natural development.
The experience of New South Wales and Victoria
is therefore in accordance with what a common sense
consideration of the question would teach us. The
tariff of one is bad, but the bad tariff and the good alike
fail to set up the factory manufactures. This cannot be
done at all, owing to the want of a market.
We may sum up, then, by repeating that the whole
foundation of the Idea in Mill is based on a misunder-
standing. There is natural variety of industry, even in
an agricultural country, to a much greater extent than
is commonly supposed. There are also natural manu-
factures, employing 5 to 10 per cent. of the population,
for which Protective duties are wholly unnecessary.
Factory manufactures of other kinds, again, have no
such place in the economy of a self-contained country
as is often assumed. Even in a manufacturing country
for export, like England, they are smaller than com-
monly supposed; and we can well believe that in no
country can the factory manufactures, for home con-
sumption only, ever occupy much more than 5 per cent.
of the working population. But for such manufactures,
as a rule, a new country has not a large enough market.
"Ve can see, then, that before Protectionists can discuss
their theory as to the benefit of import duties in setting
up manufactures so as to give variety of industry, they
should discuss the preliminary question as to whether
substantial variety can be given that way at all. If,
instead of using general language, the Protectionists to
whom Mill appears to give assent had said that pos-
sibly, but not probably, by means of import duties I or
2 per cent. of the population that would not otherwise
be occupied in manufacturing might come to be so oc-