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RECENT RATE OF MATERIAL PROGRESS IN ENGLAND 13 I
great as in recent years when a diminution has appar-
ently been observed, it would seem expedient to inquire
whether. in spite of the accumulation of signs to that
effect, the apparent check to our rate of growth may,
after all, not be a real one. To some extent I think
we must conclude that this is the case. There are
other facts which are inconsistent with a real and per-
manent check such as has been in question, and a
general explanation of the special phenomena of arrest
seems possible without supposing any such real check.
The first broad fact that does not seem quite recon-
cilable with the fact of a real diminution of the kind
alleged in the rate of material growth generally is the
real as distinguished from the apparent growth of the
income tax assessments when allowance is made for the
(aU of prices which affect, as we have seen, all aggre-
gate values. Assuming the fall of prices to be about
20 per cent., then we must add one-fourth to the assess-
ments in 1885 to get the proper figure for comparison
with 1875, The total of 631 millions for 1885 would
thus become 787 millions, which is a falling-off of 35
millions, or 4 per cent, only, from the figure of 822
millions, which should have been reached if the rate of
growth had been the same between 1875 and 1885 as
between 1865 and 1875, Allowing for the raising of
the lower limit of the income tax in the interval, this
is really no decrease at all,
Of course this comparison may be thrown out if we
are to assume the difference made'by the fall of prices
on the income tax assessments to be 15 or 10 per cent.
only, instead of 20 per cent, But a point like this
would involve a most elaborate discussion, for which
this address would hardly· be the occasion. I hope to
find a better opportunity shortly in a continuation of
my essay of ten years ago on the Accumulations of
Capital in the United Kingdom. 1 There is no doubt,
however, that an allowance must be made for the differ-
ence of prices, and when any such allowance is made
1 See II The Growth of Capital," G. Ben and Sons, 1889.