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34 ECONOMIC INQUIRIES AND STUDIES
millions more to the second group, or II millions more
than is necessary to fill up the rural districts to the
level of the Eastern States, and 16 millions to the third
group, which would suffice to fill the rural districts to
the Eastern level. Even looking at the matter in this
way, then, the prospect is that the available area in
the United States will be peopled up to the level of
the thirteen original States, as regards the rural popu.
lation, in the course of twenty-five years. But the
distribution of the increase between the grouPo", as I
have said, is likely to be unequal, and the West will
probably be filled up with even greater rapidity. To
look at the matter in yet another aspect: of the 50
millions additional population, assuming an increase
of the town population like what has been going on
in the past, about 12 millions will be a town popula-
tion, leaving 38 millions as the rural increase. But
unless rural population is to increase in the original
States, and is also to increase in the second group to
more than the present level of the original States, the
whole of this 38 millions, except the 5 millions required
for the growth of rural population in the ~econd group
to the level of the original States, will be left for the
occupation of the available area in the third group, or
double what is required. Whatever way we look at
the matter then, it seems certain that in twenty-five
years' time, and probably before that date, the limita-
tion of area in the United States will be felt. There
will be no longer vast tracts of virgin land for the
settler. The whole available area will be peopled
agriculturally, as the Eastern States are now peopled. 1

1 These various calculations may be put more shortly still As-
suming the available area for settlement to be altogether 2 million
square miles~and it seems not quite so much--this would absorb
altogeth.er, at 3S per square mile, a rural population of 70 millions.
With that l1umber the entire available area of the United States would
have as thickly settled a rural population as the thirteen original
States now have. But the present rural population being over 37
millions, only 33 millions more at the outside are needed to fill up
the available area to the level of the Eastern States, or less than the